What the analytics do and don't say about Iowa's finish at NCAA Wrestling Championships
Eli McKownKANSAS CITY — Following Drake Ayala’s loss in Saturday's NCAA finals, Iowa wrestling coach Tom Brands didn’t want to evaluate the 2023-24 season that was for the Hawkeyes.
Before he can do that, self-reflection with the coaching staff and team must come first.
“It’s too early to get analytical,” Brands said. “I say that a lot. You don’t just start talking about what needs to happen.”
The analytics tell two stories for Iowa.
The Hawkeyes finished the national tournament in fifth place with four All-Americans, their smallest podium group since 2013 when they also had four (Mike Evans, Ethen Lofthouse, Tony Ramos and curent Iowa State assistant Derek St. John).
Team trophies were given only to the top three teams this year instead of the long-standing four trophies that traditionally had been awarded. Regardless of that change, Iowa would have finished without a team trophy. This is the first time since 2016 that Iowa has not won a team trophy at the NCAAs. 2016 is also the last time the Hawkeyes have ended national without a team trophy and an individual NCAA champion.
To put even more salt in the wound, rival Iowa State finished ahead of Iowa for the first time since 2007 when Cael Sanderson was coaching in Ames and Brands was in his first season as Iowa's head coach.
Those facts paint a not-so-rosy picture. But let's look at the full context of this year’s tournament.
Penn State rolled to another national title, its most dominant one yet with an NCAA-record 172.5 points. That’s 2.5 more than the 1997 Iowa team that previously held the record.
As the Nittany Lions rolled to history with four national champions, the only suspense in the team race was which teams would take second and third place. Heading into the final session, eight programs were mathematically alive to finish in the top three. Cornell (second) and Michigan (third) ultimately took home the hardware, but a win from Ayala in the 125-pound final would have tied Michigan for a third-place finish. The Hawkeyes were that close to bringing a team trophy back to Iowa City, when projected to finish ninth ahead of the tournament if seeding held.Also of note: After Penn State’s eight All-Americans, only Nebraska (five) had more than the Hawkeyes. Iowa tied several schools with four.
And of course the analytics cannot account for the tumultuous season the Hawkeyes experienced, seeing several key members of the expected lineup taken off the mat by the state's controversial gambling probe. Even without All-Americans Tony Cassioppi and Nelson Brands and others, the Hawkeyes left Kansas City as a top-five program.
“I don’t think our guys were rattled,” Brands said. “I think our guys handled it as well as you can handle that stuff. That’s what life is about.”
The standard the Iowa program upholds is simple. The Hawkeyes want to be champions at each weight class. When you ask the goals of anyone in that wrestling room, the response is to be a national champion regardless of where they are on the depth chart. Iowa fell short of that goal this year, leaving them with an offseason of work to do.
"Our guys want to be champions,” Brands said after the Big Ten Tournament. “This program wants to be champions. You're talking to a group of guys that are disappointed, but you don't stop pursuing. You don't stop doing the right thing, you're relentless for the things that you want still.”
Iowa's NCAA Championships results
Two of the Hawkeyes' four All-Americans − Drake Ayala (second place) and Michael Caliendo (fourth) − can return next season. Jared Franek (eighth) and Real Woods (fourth) will graduate. Franek said after his match that he is unsure what comes next for him, but he may stop wrestling altogether. Regardless, he was grateful for the Iowa experience he got in one season.
Woods was insightful following his third-place bout defeat to Nebraska's Brock Hardy. He said he'll continue to try to compete somewhere with his college career done. He has learned how to perform in high-pressure environments (academics at Stanford and wrestling at Iowa). He may pursue a coaching career.
Caleb Rathjen, Patrick Kennedy, Zach Glazier and Bradley Hill did not place at the NCAA Championships but can return next season. Brody Teske's collegiate career came to an end in the blood round.
- Drake Ayala - Second place at 125 pounds
- Brody Teske - DNP at 133 pounds (3-2, lost in blood round)
- Real Woods - Fourth place at 141 pounds
- Caleb Rathjen - DNP at 149 pounds (1-2)
- Jared Franek - Eighth place at 157 pounds
- Michael Caliendo - Fourth place at 165 pounds
- Patrick Kennedy - DNP at 174 pounds (3-2, lost in blood round)
- Zach Glazier - DNP at 197 pounds (1-2)
- Bradley Hill - DNP at heavyweight (1-2)
Eli McKown covers high school sports and wrestling for the Des Moines Register. Contact him at Emckown@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @EMcKown23.